Ethiopia is a high-risk country (COVID-19, malaria, cholera, yellow fever and locusts), with the urban poor and the six to eight million people who depend on foreign food assistance most affected. People from Tigray and Amhara enjoyed much better educational facilities than the poorer and less educated people in the south and southeast. In 2020, CSOs became very active, and publicly pressed their social and cultural demands, including resettlement requests. The government, supported by NGOs and international creditors, has achieved some progress in regard to the implementation of the HERP. : This term is used to refer collectively to all events coded with event type. As a result, private companies are now in a better situation to access bank credits. These included a ETB 5 billion (around $150 million) preliminary stimulus package, the removal of import taxes on COVID-19 related items and faster value-added tax refunds for businesses. In 2019, the central bank provided ETB 15 billion (0.45% of GDP) of additional liquidity to private banks to facilitate debt restructuring and prevent bankruptcies. Its important to note that the TPLF regional government, which was dissolved by the federal government and replaced by local individuals, had been very popular among Tigrayans. Ethiopia is a landlocked country whose imports and exports depend mainly on neighboring countries. The legitimacy of the nation-state is frequently challenged by regional and local groups. Moreover, fighting and the subsequent occupation of areas by the TPLF/TDF in the Amhara and Afar regions were also characterized by the shelling of urban areas, the execution of civilians, the destruction of civil infrastructure, and sexual violence. The latter program aims to make Ethiopia a lower middle-income country by 2030, based on manufacturing and a strong private sector. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project was envisaged as a means of strengthening regional cooperation, because it would deliver cheap electric power to Ethiopias neighbors, particularly Sudan and Eritrea. In order for Ethiopia to sustain the rapid growth trajectory it has enjoyed over the past decade, it must make optimal use of all of its factors of production, particularly through continued reform of land markets and certification. Nevertheless, the government has invested in education and health care, improved gender representation (in the cabinet and diplomatic service) and encouraged entrepreneurs and foreign firms to take advantage of the new business opportunities presented by the privatization of state-owned companies and the creation of new industrial parks. The new political leadership recognized the need to deal with historical acts of injustice, but its reconciliation attempts have run into problems regarding the fair distribution of land and privileges. The Internet was shut down in 2020 following the killings of over 100 people in June and July. The Ethiopian governments attempt to dislodge the TPLF from control of the Tigray region resulted in a costly occupation, despite heavy assistance from Eritrea and a military advantage at the outset of the war. By late 2020, only 2% of companies expected to be able to hire new workers in the near future. But these ambitious aims were not achieved. All meetings of more than four persons are forbidden. CSOs were heavily regulated and enjoyed very limited political space until Abiy replaced the repressive law, regulating CSOs-activities, with a new proclamation that allows CSOs and NGOs more political space to mobilize the public. With the help of the World Bank Group and other donors, the government hopes to overcome Ethiopias private sector challenges. Two reasons for this change have been the alarming rates of soil degradation and deforestation. As long as the system of ethno-nationalism prevailed (2019/20), voter volatility remained low. The privatization policy of the new regime and the creation of new industrial parks has facilitated the greater realization of national business potential and FDI. Abiy and his government clashed with the regional government of Tigray, bringing an end to the privileges held in the region by Tigrayans. There continue to be reports of government opponents including OLF members/supporters being mistreated, tortured, arrested and killed under Prime Minister Abiys government. Ethiopia has a strong tradition of civil society organizations (CSOs), inside and outside the country. In the capital, Addis Ababa, thousands of ethnic Tigrayans were arrested and held during a declared state of emergency in November 2021 (BBC, 21 November 2021). The World Bank could use all the facilities available (risk mitigation, local currency and blended finance) to potentially support transformational projects in agribusiness, manufacturing, services and infrastructure. Ongoing airstrikes and artillery attacks have devastated infrastructure and left dozens of people dead. There has been interference in privacy, censorship and websites have been blocked. On October 5, 2020, Egypt, ever fearful of lower Nile water levels, said that negotiations with Ethiopia had reached a deadlock and called for international mediation.. The COVID-19 crisis. The postponement of the elections has led to what has been described as a constitutional crisis. Radical youth organizations, mainly in Amhara and Oromia, enforce ethnic identities and do not hesitate to expel marginalized groups of other ethnic origins. The BTI Transformation Index is a project of. Conflict in the country is deeply rooted and complex. In November 2020, Tigrayan regional security forces attacked the Ethiopian governments Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) Northern Command headquarters. The state is largely secular and tolerant, with Christian and Muslim denominations. This latter focus area will entail deeper engagement by the International Finance Cooperation (IFC) and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). The capacity to levy local taxes has improved. It will also support greater investment in secondary cities and transport corridors in order to improve access to markets for farmers and employment opportunities. Although the ENDF achieved major victories in the last weeks of 2021, ongoing clashes in early 2022 suggest that the TPLF/TDF remains capable of exacting an unacceptable cost from the ENDF should the federal government attempt to retake control of the Tigray region. Discrimination, subordination and exclusion on the basis of gender, ethnicity and political preferences is widespread. Land rental and leasing have been made legal, but transfer rights remain restricted and the perception that tenures are insecure remains quite strong. Abiy demonstrated an openness to respecting the claims of various ethnic groups for more autonomy and political participation. This will require a willingness to compromise among the political elites of the three dominant ethnic groups (nationalities). The new political leadership had to lift its harsh grip on civil society demonstrators and gradually allow greater political participation. While agricultural growth has been slow but steady, manufacturing as a proportion of the total economy has increased. Girls and women suffer from gender discrimination. In late 2020, the Tigray regional government was replaced by the Transitional Government of Tigray. Continued development assistance from the European Union and individual EU member states, which amounts to hundreds of millions of euros annually, should be made conditional on national and regional peace talks with moderate representatives of the TPLF. In addition to ongoing airstrikes and daily clashes, a delicate political balance between the federal government and powers wielded by Ethiopias regional leaders backed by regional special forces and militias formed during the war will continue throughout 2022. 9. Many nationalists had hoped in 2018 and 2019 that Prime Minister Abiys administration would address their demands after thousands of activists lost their lives in protests that paved the way for his premiership in early 2018. However, there is one main exception to the rule: the rebellion of the Marxist TPLF. Abiy maintains that he supports federalism, but the political balance in Ethiopia, his own actions and rhetoric, and indeed his own autocratic tendencies are pushing him toward pan-Ethiopian centralism. Often, public servants and politicians were accused of corruption in order to penalize an officeholder for his or her political divergence. Officials for the TPLF/TDF claim that their withdrawal from the Afar and Amhara regions was strategic and a decisive opening for peace (DW, 20 December 2021). Schools must introduce COVID-19 precaution measures, including limiting class sizes to 2030 students, and providing sanitizers, facemasks and other materials to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The IMF announced in 2019 that it would assist Ethiopia with credit facilities worth $2.9 billion. Another burning issue of non-cooperation on the Ethiopian side is the vexing issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) is a disaggregated data collection, analysis, and crisis mapping project. At least 270 civilians were killed in Benshangul/Gumuz region in 2021. In autumn 2018, for example, the former director-general of METEC, a major general and several senior members of the armed forces (with a strong Tigrayan focus) were accused of a host of failures, mismanagement and crimes, including authorizing irregular procurements that lacked competitive tenders and were worth $1.3 billion over six years. Privatization should not mean the establishment of new neoliberal power blocks. The second attempt had occurred under the Derg dictatorship, a socialist military regime led by officer Mengistu Haile Mariam (19731991). Informal arrangements in the form of sharecropping and fixed-rent tenancies, which took place even under the Derg regime, involved a risk of losing land. In general, Abiys government has demonstrated a serious commitment to anti-corruption efforts, although the bulk of people arrested and charged with corruption were officeholders under the former EPRDF regime, among them many people from Tigray. As already reported, he showed no willingness to accept international peace mediation, arguing that the fight against the TPLF was an internal affair that would be of short duration. TPLF representatives did not participate in the foundation of the new ruling party, the Ethiopian Prosperity Party (PP), which replaced the EPRDF. In order to secure the support of these protest movements (spearheaded by students from Tigray and Oromia), which brought Abiy to power as the hopeful aspirant of the frustrated masses, Abiys government changed its attitude toward civil society participation. There are some doubts about the fair distribution of business opportunities. In the Tigray region, there have been signs of unrest, with many Tigrayans expressing that they feel harassed. During round seven of the survey, which was implemented between September 13 and October 4, 2019, 5% of small, medium and large firms laid off workers, up from less than 1% in round six. For example, the responsible officers at the Metals and Engineering Corporation were accused of robbing huge amounts of money from the poor country. In January 2019, a top figure in the former EPRDF regime was arrested together with Tadesse Kassa, the former CEO of Tiret Corporate in the Amhara region, on embezzlement charges. The conflict has been characterized as a civil war. The governments return to a policy of political repression (e.g., military intervention in Tigray) in 2020 blocked the implementation of the new competition regulations. It is unknown how China as Ethiopias main creditor will handle the debt issue. The sharpest effects on growth rates were seen in transport (-20% drop in growth), hotels and restaurants (-7%), public administration (-7%), wholesale/retail trade (-5%), and construction (-5%). Toward the end of 2020, the Tigray regional government was replaced by the Transitional Government of Tigray. This conflict, which is severe and ongoing, has been described as brutal. Eyewitness accounts describe Ethiopian and Eritrean forces summarily executing civilians and looting property. Events involve designated actors e.g. Under the EPRDF government, Ethiopia started a liberalization reform program, with the aim of introducing more competitive elements, when the Growth and Transformation Plan was passed by the parliament in 2015. In many parts of the country, land scarcity has become more acute due to population growth. In Addis Ababa and other regional towns, there were persistent demonstrations and protests led by students, journalists and other professionals against the government. Meanwhile, youth unemployment has remained high, at an official rate of 25%, although experts calculated with higher figures. Most of these groups supported the new regimes announcement of a democratic multiparty system. Existing investors will also benefit from new investment dispute rules and grievance handling procedures, which are likely to streamline administrative processes at the federal and regional levels. Addis Ababa responded by designating the Tigray leadership illegitimate, while Tigray declared it would not recognize Abiys administration after its original term expired on October 5, 2020. While anti-corruption laws had existed under the old EPRDF regime, they were never consistently applied in practice. Reformers in the federal government are unable to overcome anti-democratic opposition groups and veto powers in other parts of the country. Civilians accused of collaborating with the federal government were also killed by TPLF/TDF forces after they retook control of the region. Divisions along ethnic lines are old and entrenched but flared up with a new intensity in the first half of 2018 when 1.4 million people were forced to flee ethnic conflict in the west of the country. Violent ethnic clashes continued in Ethiopias southern and eastern regions. Of the eight factions, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA/OLF-Shane) operating in the Oromia region has expanded most significantly over the past year, in part due to their alliance with the TPLF/TDF. However, he could not prevent communal-religious tensions between Islamist extremists and Protestant-Evangelical and Orthodox denominations fighting for influence. In June 2017, following his trip to Brussels, Hailemariam signed a joint declaration with the European Union, Toward an EU-Ethiopian Strategic Engagement on security matters, integration and economic cooperation. In September 2019, the government announced the Homegrown Economic Reform Program, which received approval and financial support from the IMF. In Addis Ababa, a new generation of urbanized youth movements has developed. This reform process is intended to change the state identity from a decentralized ethnic federal system into a more centralized national republic. ). As the many demonstrations of civil society groups, students and youth movements in Addis Ababa and other cities during recent years have shown, commitment to democratic values is widespread. According to UNICEF, 65% of households have access to improved water sources, but only 6.3% of households have access to improved sanitation. It is expected that economic growth per capita will decrease from 9% in 2019 to 1.9% in 2021. Ethiopia recorded the sixth lowest COVID-19 death rates (relative to population size) worldwide. When Tigray refused to become part of this new constitutional structure and announced that it would hold regional elections against the will of Addis Ababa, the hidden consensus on democracy collapsed with Abiys law and order operation in autumn 2020. The simple average of MFN applied duties was 17.4% in 2015, 11.8% in 2017 and 17.4% in 2018 (latest figure). Conflicts over land and resources continually flare up, and are pushed by authorities who use Ethiopias ethno-federalist system of governance to compete for contested territory and governance rights. In the past, officeholders loyal to the government who broke the law and engaged in corruption were not systematically or adequately prosecuted. The greatest success has been achieved in the field of tertiary education: according to World Bank figures, some 8% of the population attended education institutions beyond secondary schools in 2017/2018. The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes. Accordingly, 70,000 under-five year-olds die each year due to diarrhea are reported. Despite recent policies to stimulate intensification, land productivity remains low in most parts of Ethiopia. The urban poor are likely to be severely affected. In November 2020, Ahmeds army occupied Mekelle and Tigrays regional army of approximately 170,000 soldiers went underground. Finally, grievances held by communities throughout Ethiopia will make politically negotiated settlements difficult to implement. It is estimated that for 17.5 million small-scale farms there are no more than 500 tractors and 600 harvesters (Getachew Diriba 2020). In Tigray, where the TPLF has refused to implement the governments reform agenda, an economic empire based on EPRDF patronage, appropriation and large-scale borrowing, with accountability to no one, has been discovered. Abiy dissolved the old party of power, the EPRDF, which ruled the country between 1991 and 2018, and formed a new party, the Ethiopian Prosperity Party. The key issue was the filling schedule for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. The income of female-headed households, urban dwellers, and self-employed and casual laborers has been most severely affected. Tax reforms are underway to boost revenue mobilization, but deficit financing through central bank advances has fueled inflation and reduced monetary policy effectiveness. But his obstinate handling of the Tigray crisis undermined relations with Sudan and Egypt. Instead, the prime minister has dismissed judges who did not support the centralist approach of the new government. For more methodological information including definitions for all event and sub-event types please see the ACLED Codebook.
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